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为了发现煤矿事故发生规律,减少煤矿事故,降低死亡率,研究基于3次指数平滑分析法,选取2000~2014年我国煤矿事故死亡人数进行分析,应用3次指数平滑法进行建模,预测出2015、2016年我国煤矿事故死亡人数,研究基于3类危险源提出了对应的解决措施,为决策者做好预防与应急工作奠定基础。
In order to find out the regularity of coal mine accident, reduce coal mine accident and reduce mortality rate, this paper studied the death toll of coal mine accident in China from 2000 to 2014 based on 3-times exponential smoothing analysis and 3 times exponential smoothing method to predict 2015 , The death toll of coal mine accidents in China in 2016, the study put forward corresponding solutions based on three types of hazard sources, laying a solid foundation for decision-makers to make prevention and emergency work.