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消费需求与居民收总是紧密相关的,居民收入又总是与经济增长同步的。为了找出经济增长与消费需求之间的定量关系,本文利用山东省1991—2007年的GDP与最终消费统计数据,根据经济理论和计量经济学方法对其消费函数进行了分析,在此基础上建立了符合山东省实际情况的单方程计量经济模型和误差修正模型(ECM),为合理制定山东宏观经济政策提供决策依据。
Consumption needs are closely related to the incomes of the residents. Residents’ incomes are always synchronized with economic growth. In order to find the quantitative relationship between economic growth and consumer demand, this paper uses the GDP and final consumption statistics of Shandong Province from 1991 to 2007, and analyzes its consumption function based on economic theory and econometrics The single-equation econometric model and error correction model (ECM) are established in line with the actual situation in Shandong Province to provide decision-making basis for the rational formulation of Shandong macroeconomic policy.