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文章试图通过识别边际资本回报率与投资率对经济总产出波动的影响来增进对宏观经济周期性波动的理解。实证发现,中国经济运行存在长度与典型朱格拉周期一致的中周期现象,边际资本生产率与投资率是推动这种中周期现象的两股基础力量,特别是边际资本生产率服从先递增后递减的内在规律是中国经济投资周期的根本驱动因素之一。进一步,文章也发现中国主要依靠制度改革扩大市场规模,进而引起边际资本生产率变化,是驱动中国宏观经济呈现朱格拉周期现象的重要原因。
The article attempts to enhance the understanding of the cyclical fluctuations in the macroeconomy by identifying the impact of the rate of return on marginal capital and the rate of investment on the total output of the economy. The empirical study shows that there is a medium-cycle phenomenon in which the length of the Chinese economy runs in accordance with the typical Zhugela cycle. Marginal capital productivity and investment rate are the two basic forces driving this medium-cycle phenomenon. In particular, the marginal capital productivity follows the principle of increasing and then decreasing The law is one of the fundamental drivers of China’s economic investment cycle. Further, the article also finds that China mainly relies on the system reform to expand its market size, which in turn leads to the change of marginal capital productivity. This is an important reason for driving the Chinese macroeconomy to present the Zhugela cycle.