本文结合我国的实际国情,通过构建EMIMIC模型测算了我国1979-2009年灰色经济的规模,并对其变化过程及灰色经济与国民经济之间的关系进行了实证研究。研究结果表明:我国灰色经济规模变化依次呈现急速增长、急速降低和持续稳定增长三个不同阶段,且灰色经济与国民经济不存在简单的正负相关关系。应全面、客观地看待灰色经济的作用及影响,采取措施有效地降低灰色经济规模。 Based on China’s actual national conditions, this paper estimates the scale of gray economy in China from 1979 to 2009 through the construction of EMIMIC model, and makes an empirical study on the change process and the relationship between gray economy and national economy. The results show that: the gray economy scale changes in turn show rapid growth, rapid decline and sustained and steady growth in three different stages, and the gray economy and the national economy does not exist a simple positive and negative correlation. A comprehensive and objective view of the role and impact of the gray economy should be taken to effectively reduce the scale of the gray economy.