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国际羊肉价格波动对中国羊肉价格有显著影响。为了弄清国际羊肉价格与中国羊肉价格之间的传导关系,笔者运用向量误差修正模型(VEC)及非对称条件异方差模型(TARCH)实证分析国际羊肉价格波动对中国羊肉价格的传导效应。结果表明:1)国际羊肉价格与中国羊肉价格存在长期均衡关系,国际羊肉价格波动会传递给中国羊肉价格并且传递时滞为1年;格兰杰(Granger)因果关系检验得知国际羊肉价格波动是中国羊肉价格波动的成因,反之则不成立;脉冲响应图显示,国际羊肉价格对中国羊肉价格产生显著冲击响应,反之中国羊肉价格对国际羊肉价格冲击响应不显著。2)当国际羊肉价格上涨时,中国羊肉价格上涨程度大于国际羊肉价格上涨程度;当国际羊肉价格下跌时,中国羊肉价格下跌程度要小于国际羊肉价格引发中国羊肉价格上涨程度。
International mutton price fluctuations have a significant impact on Chinese lamb prices. In order to find out the conduction relation between the international mutton price and the Chinese mutton price, the author empirically analyzes the conduction effect of the international mutton price fluctuation on the mutton price in China by using vector error correction model (VEC) and asymmetric conditional heteroskedasticity model (TARCH). The results show that: 1) There is a long-term equilibrium relationship between the international mutton price and the Chinese mutton price. The fluctuation of the international mutton price will be transmitted to the Chinese mutton price and the lag time is one year; Granger causality test shows that the international mutton price fluctuates Is the cause of the price fluctuation of Chinese mutton and vice versa. The impulse response chart shows that the international mutton price has a significant impact on the Chinese mutton price. On the contrary, the response of Chinese mutton price to the international mutton price is not significant. 2) When the price of international mutton rose, the price of mutton in China rose more than that of international mutton. When the price of mutton fell, the price of mutton in China dropped less than the price of mutton caused by mutton prices in China.