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根据1736-1911年文献记载的洪泽湖年最高水位及1914-1992年湖区水文测站的水位、流量资料,进行了长、短序列的入湖洪峰流量及不同时段洪量的频率分析,进而推求出不同重视期的设计入湖洪量和洪水年份相当的重现期,并分析洪水的灾害特征,结果表明:1)洪泽湖历史上洪水发生频繁,1786、1851、1906年均发生过特大洪水,高堰志桩分别至163、23.4、16.1尺。2)1953年建库后,湖水位上升。年最高水位历年平均值较建库前升高了1.22m;多年平均水位升高了1.72m。3)1916-1992年淮河蚌埠站年入湖洪峰流量、最大3日洪量、最大30日洪量和年平均流量频率分析显示。1954年分别相当于20、20、45.5和30.3年一遇洪水。1991年分别相当于7.1、7.1、10和14.7年一遇洪水。1991年洪水总体上小于1954年,但灾情超过1954年.表明湖区受灾程度有加剧趋势。
Based on the data of year 1936-1911, the maximum water level of Hongze Lake and the water level and flow data of hydrological stations in the lake from 1914 to 1992, long-term and short-term peak flow into the lake and frequency analysis of flood volume at different periods were carried out. The results show that: 1) Floods occurred frequently in Hongze Lake history, which occurred in 1786, 1851, 1906 years, especially in the flood season Flood, high weir pile to 163,23.4,16.1 feet. 2) After the reservoir was built in 1953, the lake level rose. The average annual maximum water level increased by 1.22m compared with that before the establishment of the reservoir; mean water level increased by 1.72m for many years. 3) From 1916 to 1992, Huaihe Bengbu station year into the lake peak flow, the maximum flood volume on the 3rd, the maximum flood volume on the 30th and the annual average flow frequency analysis shows. 1954 equivalent to 20,20,45.5 and 30.3 floods in 2003. 1991 equivalent to 7.1, 7.1, 10 and 14.7 floods in a year. The floods in 1991 were generally smaller than in 1954, but the disaster outpaced 1954. It indicates that the degree of disaster in the lake area is aggravating.