2013年前三季度全国电力供需形势分析及四季度预测

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前三季度,国民经济运行总体平稳,全国电力供需总体平衡,迎峰度夏安全稳定。全社会用电量同比增长7.2%,增速比上年同期提高2.4个百分点,其中三季度增长10.9%。第一产业用电同比增长0.1%;第二产业用电增长6.5%,低于全国平均增长水平;第三产业用电增长10.9%,延续高速增长势头:城乡居民生活用电增长8.9%,三季度增速大幅提升至17.6%。全国6000千瓦及以上发电装机容量同比增长9.5%,电力供应能力充足。水电发电量在三季度负增长,前三季度设备利用小时同比下降150小时,电煤供应总体宽松,火电发电量在三季度实现两位数增长、前三季度设备利用小时同比降幅收窄至6小时;风电发电量保持高速增长,设备利用小时同比增幅扩大到138小时。主要受上年同期高基数、气温等因素影响,预计四季度全社会用电量增速有所回落,同比增长6.5%~7.5%,全年增长7.0%左右。预计年底全国发电装机达到12.3亿千瓦左右,跃 In the first three quarters, the national economy was generally stable with an overall balanced supply and demand of electricity and a safe and stable summer. The electricity consumption of the whole society increased by 7.2% over the same period of last year, an increase of 2.4% over the same period of last year, of which, the growth rate in the third quarter was 10.9%. Electricity consumption in the primary industry increased by 0.1% over the same period of last year; electricity consumption in the secondary industry increased by 6.5%, lower than the national average growth rate; electricity consumption in the tertiary industry increased by 10.9%, sustaining the momentum of rapid growth: electricity consumption by urban and rural residents increased by 8.9% Quarterly growth increased significantly to 17.6%. Power generation capacity of 6,000 kilowatts and above nationwide increased by 9.5% over the same period of last year, providing sufficient power supply capacity. Hydropower generated negative growth in the third quarter. Equipment utilization hours in the first three quarters dropped by 150 hours on year-on-year basis. The coal supply was generally loose. Thermal power generated double-digit growth in the third quarter. In the first three quarters, equipment utilization hours narrowed to 6 hours ; Wind power generation capacity maintained rapid growth, equipment utilization hours increased by an hour to 138 hours. Mainly due to the high base of the same period of last year, the temperature and other factors, the whole society is expected in the fourth quarter power consumption growth rate has dropped, an increase of 6.5% to 7.5%, the annual increase of 7.0%. It is estimated that by the end of the year, the installed capacity of power generation in the country will reach about 1.23 billion kilowatts, jumping
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