论文部分内容阅读
低碳转型是我国可持续发展的内在要求,是实践科学发展观,建设“两型”社会的必由之路。本文构建了一个能同时包含“稳增长”、“低能耗”、“低排放”多元目标的可持续发展分析框架,基于1985~2010年全国27个省份投入产出面板数据,运用基于DDF的ML生产率指数和增长核算法,对我国经济低碳转型绩效进行了评估。研究发现:不考虑环境因素会高估生产率及其对经济增长的贡献,从而对我国低碳转型绩效做出较为乐观判断;绿色全要素生产率(GTFP)增长主要来源于技术进步,且受制度因素水平效应影响,考察期内GTFP增长率呈现“先升后降再平稳”的时间趋势特征;GTFP是经济增长重要驱动力之一,考察期内我国经济低碳转型绩效明显,受边际转型成本影响近年来有趋缓回落趋势,我国仍属于资本和能源双重驱动的粗放型经济增长方式;我国经济低碳转型绩效地区差异明显,部分欠发达省份也表现出了较高的转型绩效,但这种地区差距具有相对稳定性,仅在两次危机期间表现出了较大波动。暂且撇开关于低碳模式“阴谋论”还是“双赢论”争论对错不说,在本文中我们确实捕捉到了我国低碳转型绩效明显的信息,综合来看,我国经济低碳转型任重而道远,但艰难与希望并存。
Low-carbon transformation is the inherent requirement of our country’s sustainable development and the only way to practice the scientific development concept and build a “two-type” society. This paper constructs a sustainable development analysis framework which can simultaneously contain the multiple goals of “stable growth”, “low energy consumption” and “low emission”. Based on the input-output panel data of 27 provinces in China from 1985 to 2010 , Using DDF-based ML productivity index and growth accounting method to evaluate the performance of China’s low-carbon economy transformation. The study found that: regardless of the environmental factors will overestimate the productivity and its contribution to economic growth, so as to make a more optimistic assessment of China’s low-carbon transition performance; green total factor productivity (GTFP) growth comes mainly from technological progress, and subject to institutional factors GTFP growth rate is characterized by the time trend of “first rising later then decreasing then again”. GTFP is one of the important driving forces of economic growth. During the period under review, the performance of China’s economy in low-carbon transformation has been significantly improved. Due to the marginal transformation However, the impact of cost has been slowing down in recent years. Our country still belongs to the extensive mode of economic growth driven by both capital and energy. There are obvious differences in the low-carbon transition performance areas in our country, and some underdeveloped provinces also show higher transition performance. However, The regional disparity is relatively stable, showing only large fluctuations during the two crises. For the time being, aside from the argument that the low-carbon model, “conspiracy theory” or “win-win theory,” is right or wrong, we have indeed captured the obvious performance of our country’s low-carbon transformation in this paper. On the whole, Long way to go, but difficult and hope co-exist.