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本文基于地区发展视角,通过构建面板向量自回归模型,实证检验了二元财政、城乡差距与经济增长之间的关系效应,结合脉冲响应分析、方差分解结果以及Granger因果关系检验,揭示了三者的稳定性特征与互动影响效应。本文的主要结论为:二元财政的改善,也即增大非农投入的比重会阻滞经济增长,同时引致GDP的负向波动;城乡差距的增大会促进地区经济增长,同时也是影响GDP波动的重要因素,而经济增长会抑制城乡差距的扩大,这是“库兹涅茨曲线”形成的重要机理,不过我国尚未到达“拐点”;二元财政与城乡差距间有着很强的因果关系,而且是单向的从二元财政传导到城乡差距。
Based on the regional development perspective, this paper constructs a panel vector autoregressive model to test the relationship between binary finance, urban-rural gap and economic growth by empirical analysis. Combined with impulse response analysis, variance decomposition results and Granger causality test, Stability characteristics and interaction effects. The main conclusions of this paper are as follows: The improvement of dual finance, that is, the increase of the proportion of non-agricultural investment, will retard the economic growth and lead to the negative fluctuation of GDP; the increase of urban-rural gap will promote the regional economic growth and also affect the fluctuation of GDP However, economic growth will restrain the expansion of the gap between urban and rural areas. This is an important mechanism for the formation of the Kuznets Curve, but our country has yet to reach the inflection point. There is a strong gap between the dual finance and the urban-rural gap Of the causal relationship, but also one-way from the dual financial conduction to the urban-rural gap.