【摘 要】
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Most of the past studies on the flood calculation and safety of levee destruction are determinism that for the flood calculation or levee stability the stat
【机 构】
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Graduate School of Science and Engineering, Chuo University
论文部分内容阅读
Most of the past studies on the flood calculation and safety of levee destruction are determinism that for the flood calculation or levee stability the status is safe or failure.However in the real environment, there are a lot of uncertainty factors that would affect the analysis result of the disaster occurrence.In the study, the authors would consider the hydrological uncertainty and the variability of soil parameters of levee to propose a new method for the risk evaluation of flood forecasting and stability of levee construction induced by rainfall.The uncertainty has two types, one is the limitation of observation or experiment and the other one is error of data.For the flood and levee analysis, the uncertainty analysis would be separated to the external force from rainfall and the resistance force of levee stability.In considering the external force, it would focus on the analysis the relationship between rainfall and runoff based on the uncertainty rainfall and the analysis of levee stability would consider the deviation of the soil parameters.Finally the occurrence of disaster would be summarized as like the risk evaluation during rainfall based on the stochastic process theory.
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