欧元启动一年多后的今天，人们对欧洲货币联盟（EMU）及欧元（EURO）的兴趣已不仅仅局限于“欧元是什么”这个简单的问题；相反，一些更深层次的理论与实践性问题引起了人们更大的关注，比如，历史上共同货币为什么以及如何产生？欧洲为什么需要单一货币？EMU是如何运作的？它的国际影响与未来前景会如何？本论文即用四篇的篇幅对这些问题进行历史的和理性的回答。 第一篇即“历史篇”，试图阐释货币演变的历史规律，共同货币产生的历史基础以及欧洲货币一体化的背景与进程。其中第一章首先描述从早期自由货币到国家货币，直至共同货币的不断上升的历史过程，探讨这种转化的历史合理性，认为从自由货币向国家货币转化所带来的对跨境贸易的不便是早期共同货币产生的主要原因。通过对以强大帝国武力为后盾所创立的最早的共同货币和以成员国家间协议形式成立的最早的正式的货币联盟，以及二十世纪货币一体化进程的描述，本章为下一章专门讨论欧洲货币一体化提供了全面的历史背景。 第二章转向欧洲，集中讨论欧洲经济、货币一体化的内外部原因，描述欧洲货币改革从最初起步直到欧元诞生的全过程。通过分析，本章认为，促使EMU诞生的背后的动机既是经济性的，又是政治性的，它是三个因素的产物：（1）欧洲人力图克服现代国际货币体系之缺陷的意愿；（2）欧洲经济一体化的要求；（3）欧洲人对抗“美元霸权”和试图在国际上扮演更重要角色的政治野心。 第二篇即“理论篇”，阐释了关于共同货币的主要思想和理论，并对与欧洲单一货币密切相关的理论细节进行了讨论。该篇也分两章： 第三章叙述了早期关于共同货币的思想萌芽，如1588年的“全球货币”及19世纪60年代的“国际货币＼ 以及20世纪相关的主要理论，如由凯恩斯、特里芬、尼尔斯·塞杰逊等人所创立的理论．凯恩斯和特里芬是对二十世纪国际货币改革及欧洲货币一体化最具贡献的两位学人；正是他们奠定了共同货币的主要的理论基础。 第四章集中分析最初由蒙代尔所创立的“最佳货币区”理论及其对，EMU的贡献。作者介绍和分析了传统的最传货币区理论及其所提出的确定一个馒佳货币区的四条标准，介绍和分析了现代江佳货币区理论及其对货币联盟下货币政策、外汇政策有效性的研究；然后作者转入对“欧盟是不是一个最佳货币区＼ 以及欧元引入的成本与效应的探讨．作者认为，理论研究可以部分解释EMU的合理性，尽管欧盟作为一个整体尚不能构成一个真正的最佳货币区；结合其他政治因素，EMU对其所有成员国都将是十分诱人的选择，从长期来看尤其如此． 第三篇即“运作篇 阐释了欧元区货币、外汇及财政政策战略，并讨论了该战略未来可能的发展趋向。该篇由第五、六、七章组成。 第五章首先分析了对欧洲中央银行（ECB）设计其货币政策战略至“关重要的三个因素，即门）一些大成功的中央银行（如德、英、美等国央行）的经验教训；（2）关于货币政策的最新的理论研究成果（如对合理预期、货币供应、博奕论、中央银行独立性的模式及直接通胀控制法等的研究）；（3）欧元区的特殊性及欧元启动之初ECB所面临的困难。然后本章分别讨论ECB如何确定其“稳定导向型”货币政策战略的每一个要素，讨论ECB为达成其价格稳定目标所运用的政策工具，讨论欧元区之所以选择ECB“宪政独立”模式的原因．此外，本章还就对货币政策运作至关重要的统计与支付系统进行了介绍． 第六章首先简述了国际汇率机制演变的历史，并介绍了“汇率目标 一区”理论成果及其新发展。洁合EMU的现状，作者认为，至少在最初 2 阶段，欧元区会选择一种“仁兹的疏忽”的汇率政策来处理欧元对非 欧盟货币的汇率关系；它将以真实的基础均衡汇率为基础，确定并钉 住一个“影子目标汇率区＼ 接着本章分别讨论了作为欧元与欧盟其他 货币间一个正式安排的新的欧洲汇率机制（ERM 11）的合理性与内容，，讨论了欧元区外汇储备库的建立与管理，并对《马约》所确立的汇率 决策机制框架进行了总结。 第七章首先解释了EMU的“趋同标准”及《马约》和《稳定与增 长公约》所确定的财政政策架构，并集中讨论了其财政纪律和过渡赤 字程序的运作与影响。作者认为财政政策的“灵活性”和“纪律”不 仅对联盟整体，而且对各成员国都是必要的；旨在强化财政“可持续 性”的财政纪律即使在缺乏EMU的情况下也应被各国所采用。至于财 政架构未来的发展，笔者认为在最近的将来，在欧元区建立所谓的“财 政联盟”似乎不太可能亦不必要。 最后一篇即“影响篇”对欧元及EMU在欧洲及国际上的影响与前”景进行了讨论。该篇包括第八章及一个附件。 第八章通过对欧元区经济、金融的国际比较，以及对国际货币的演 变史的分析，认为目前欧元区已经强大到足以影响全球货币体系的程 度。但在可以预见的将来，欧元不大可能取代美元而成为国际货币的 “龙头”。欧元自诞生以来汇率为什么一路下跌？当前欧元弱势意味着 什么？就此，作者从EMU内外部诸多方面进行了分析，并认为“弱欧 元”不等于“弱联盟＼ 从长远来看，欧元会是一种比较稳定的强势货 币。作者还就这一货币对国际金融市场作为一个整体及其各个方面， 以及对国际货币体系的稳定性等的影响进行了多角度的分析。 本篇的附件集中讨论了ECB对中国的影响，以及中国可能采取的 对策。欧元启动后，不少专家对在东亚地区形成以日元为中心的货币 3 J区，或在所谓：中华经济圈”形成“华人货币区”的可能性表示了浓厚的兴趣。然而，本附件的分析表明，这种设想在短期内很难变成现实，尽管为对付潜在的地区性金融危机，区内有关货币当局之间的金融合作有可能加强． ． 0 巴 】 4 d了口 一SummaryInstead of such a simple question, "what the Euro is?", today, more{{XiangXZY}}than one year after the Euro’s birth, people show more interest insome deeper questions about the EMU and the Euro, such as, howand why did common currency emerge in the history? Why is thesingle currency needed in Europe? How does the EMLJ work?What are the future and the impacts of the Euro? This paper,which consists of four parts, is just intended to answer thesequestions historically and theoretically.The first part, i.e, "the Part of History", tries to expose and explainthe historical rule of currency evaluation, the historical foundationof common currency, and the background and the process of theEuropean monetary integration.Chapter 1 of the part begins with a presentation of the upturnhistory of currency forms from natural currency (here it meansearly primitive currency and currency issued by early merchantsand bankers) to national currency, and then to common currency.It shows that the inconvenience to the cross-border trader causedby the shift from natural to national currency is the main reason forthe event of early common currency. Furthermore, the chapternarrates some of the earliest common currencies set up by the forceof strong empires, the earliest formal monetary unions set up byagreements among member countries, and the experiences of the2O~k~ century monetary integration. These provide a historicalbackground for the studies in the next chapters.Chapter 2 of the part turns to Europe, concentrating on the reasonsfor the European economic and monetary integration externally andinternally, and the whole process of the European monetary reformfrom its beginning to the birth of the Euro. It concludes that theEMU came from (1) the willingness to overcome the defects of themodem international monetary system; (2) the need to match theEuropean economic integration; and (3) the political ambitions ofthe European to resist the US dollar’s supremacy and try to play amore important role in the world. In one word, the driving motivebehind EMU are both political and economic.The secondp观 l．e，“ theP血 ofTheory’二 nit呷retsthe mainthoughs and theories about common currenCy，and discusses somedetails which are closelyral眺dw他叫她opean single curren叮．There are alsotwo c…ters mthisp刎．Ch叩ter3 讪。沏cesthe earlythou咖s劝。瞰common c皿en叮sue5as“un1vers卅（1588） an6“Mem劝on旷’（186’s） curncxand the main reaad加pm们血theories mhehe 20th ce咖y，focussing on he International curr啊 heory created by KCynes，Triffin，and the Parallel C见啊 T址ory by Nlels TNgesen，etc．Keynes andDiffinbuiltthe mmtheo血Ic foundation ofcomoncurrenCy and re two ofoe most l呷o侧 contributors to me腑mational mon印叮 reformandthe E哑opean mon办叮m吃egration n his ce恤W．Ch叩ter4 conce协办s on出e Owm C皿en呼拉eas（OCA）Theory originally created by Mnell．The auhor an吻ses hetraditional OCA theory and is four cieria for defdrig an OCA，山e mod咖 OCA出eov and他办dies吻om池e e肚mvmess ofmonet叼 and exchange－ate poliCy under a mon啊 union．Accordmgtothese，he血讪dis皿sses加灿ertheEUis anOCAandwhatare the costsandbene肋 of＊the 伽op删 spple currm吼andthen螂esthattheth印啪啪 Wdies can邮ally emlmtheratbnd收 of山e EMUEMU and肋Emo，lhou如山eEUEUas awholecan not const侧e a real OCA；considering some other political敝ors（see ch叩ter 2），the EMUMU will be a very咖active Option toits allmembers，e幼eclallyinthelongm．The third p叨，i．e，“e Pm of Op咖od二 an吻ses he strategiesandthe operations of＊theions morletavirletavi ex血ange仍比 and fiscal policyoftheE皿。－are民 andthelhly d例el叩melltofthem mthe仙山e．It is dlVidsd．into血e0咖：C叩ter 5 StatS w讪 CXpl一班ee趾tors which are togethervery esselltial for he ECB to dest助他mon侧policy 咖Wgy：（l）the qmmce of he most successful ce咖l b趾s（especiallyhGem叫化肥W U民mdac一；（2）脓mW SNdieS 劝O山 峻monet叨 poliCy（such as rational e邓e咖lons，the game theomhe relationshp b咖een mo聊聊ly and mflatioA the model of 6 central ba冰’s Ind印endence，tile new experiences of direct lfifiBtlofl tatgCtlllg，nd CtC．）；（3）hC SpCC181 latUUC Of thC EllUO－atCS andthe di历cultiestheECB faces atthe outsetoftheEuro．Then the author discusses how tile ECB defines every element of its “stability－oriented” monetarypollcy stfategX howthe ECB operates ltspollcy Instrumentsto reachthe o刊ectlve ofprlce stabili以 and wN the·Euro－area chooses the constitutional呵 Independellce oftheECB．Besides，the system ofstatlstlcs and p时ment of＊the BMUMU，which Is Impoltant to the operations of山e monet叨 policy are also血oduced Inthe chapter． Chapter 6 st咖s with an analysis of＊theis evaluation of＊thetion International exchange－rate mechanism（E删），he stUdies abom ERMRM （especlau山e TyetZone ofExchangeRate），and山e practical sltoatlon of＊thelon E败o－area．The author suggests that he option of“ benign neglect” exchange－ratepollcyto man昭e the Euro’s exchange－rate to non－EU currencies，which alms at a “ShsdOWt呷Ct ZOllC” dCfillCd ills IC31 fulld8lllClltal Cqlllllbflllffi exchange－rate，should be tempting for the Euro－are民t least Initially．Moreover，the author discusses he ratlonallty and contents ofE删 11 which is aformal arngementofthe exchange－rate of meLuro to citier tU－currencies．foe manaaeme血 of＊theme nool of令 the ECB’s forelan exchanae reservec and thannl；。v爿。。；。；nn framework ofexchange rate are alsomroduced n this oh叩ter ChaPter7 begins with explalningthe definitions of＊thetions conve吧ence crlterla onheEMUMU andoe designed Ramewo出 ofnscalpdlcy concentrating onthe operations nd impacts of＊thes iscal disciplines and excessive dencltprocedures．The author comes to a conclusion that both the lexlblllty and dlsclpllnes are necess卿 for the EMUMU as a whole and its member countries；he discplines which alms to stfengthenthe nscal sustain眈lllty shouldbe adapted by countries even In the absence of the EMU．Moreovef3 the author also analysesthe u血e of＊the nscal伙mewo出 and arguesthat it seems unlikely andunl呷ortantto form aEuropeanFlscal Federation Inthe near future． ． The last p阶，l．e，“the P瞅 off 呷acts’二 Is a multi－angle study of the impacts and prospects of the EMU and Euro，boh In Europe 7 ＞and in the world. It includes Chapter 8 and an appendix.In Chapter 8, the author presents an international comparison of theeconomy and finance of the Euro-area with the US and Japan, anda discussion about the evaluation of international currencies, andthen concludes that the Euro-area has indeed been large and strongenough to effect the global monetary system, but the Euro isunlikely to replace the US dollar as the pre-eminent globalpcurrency in the expected future. Why does the exchange rate ofthe Euro go down from its birth up to now? What does it mean?The author works on these questions by discussing both externaland internal factors of the EMU and concludes that the recent weakEuro does not means a weak EMU; the Euro will become relativelystrong and stable in the medium-term and long run. Furthermore,the author provides a comprehensive analysis of the prospects ofthe Euro and the Euro’s impacts on the international financialmarket as a whole and its every main aspect, and on the stability ofthe global currency system.The appendix focuses on the impacts of the EMU on China andChina’s likely financial countermeasures. After the launch of theEuro, many specialists turn to the possibility of forming an East-Asia Currency Area centered on Japanese Yen, or a ChineseCurrency Area in so-called Chinese Economic Circle. However,the analysis in this appendix shows that it might not come true inthe short run, although the financial co-operations among therelated currency authorities in these areas will be strengthened inorder to react to the potential regional financial crises.