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基于全球贸易分析模型GTAP及中韩FTA的实际降税幅度,分析中韩FTA对东亚的经济影响。研究发现,中韩FTA将对中国大陆、韩国带来正的经济效应,且韩国的经济改善幅度要大于大陆,但东亚其他经济体将遭受经济冲击,其中,台湾、日本所受冲击将更为显著;大陆的渔业、采矿业、食品加工业、制造业以及韩国的制造业将受益于中韩FTA的建立,出口普遍增长;东亚其他经济体的产品出口所受影响会有所不同,但出口受阻较为严重的经济体为香港、日本、台湾。
Based on the actual tax reduction range of the global trade analysis model GTAP and the FTA of China and South Korea, this paper analyzes the economic impact of China-ROK FTA on East Asia. The study found that the FTA between China and South Korea will bring positive economic effects to mainland China and South Korea, and that the economic improvement in South Korea should be greater than that in the Mainland. However, other East Asian economies will suffer economic shocks. Among them, Taiwan and Japan will suffer even more impact Significant; the mainland’s fisheries, mining, food processing, manufacturing and South Korea’s manufacturing industry will benefit from the establishment of FTA in China and South Korea, the general increase in exports; exports from other economies in East Asia will be affected by different exports, but exports The more hindered economies are Hong Kong, Japan and Taiwan.