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汇率改革以来人民币呈现渐进升值的特征,这种升值模式不同于激进升值,会对我国证券市场产生不同的影响。本文分析了预期效应、数量效应、财富效应、结构效应和利率效应等影响的渠道,并运用汇改以来的数据实证分析人民币渐进升值与上证综合指数的相关性,结果表明,从中短期看渐进升值对证券市场产生了积极的影响,为我国证券市场发展带来了难得的发展机遇,但同时也存在负面作用。为了最大限度地回避升值带来的不利冲击,应稳定升值预期并加快证券市场发展。
Since the RMB exchange rate reform has shown the gradual appreciation of the renminbi characteristics of this mode of appreciation is different from the radical appreciation, will have different effects on China’s securities market. This paper analyzes the channels of expected effects, quantitative effects, wealth effects, structural effects and interest rate effects, and empirical analysis of the correlation between RMB appreciation and the Shanghai Composite Index using the data since the exchange reform, the results show that ascending appreciation in the short to medium term It has had a positive impact on the securities market and brought a rare opportunity for the development of the securities market in our country. However, it also has a negative effect. In order to minimize the adverse impact caused by the appreciation, we should stabilize the expected appreciation and speed up the development of the securities market.