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管理会计作为现代企业会计的重要分支,需要在历史记录、历史分析的基础上为管理者提供具有综合性、前瞻性的预报信息。预测未来原本就是比记录和分析更加困难的任务,在现代社会,多变量共变、速变、巨变的情形进一步加大了管理会计的预测任务的复杂性和不确定性,管理会计在简单扩展知识的层次上已经无法应对这种复杂性和不确定性,方法论层次的创新可能是管理会计预测方法进一步提升的有效路径。本文尝试从方法论的层次探索管理会计预测方法的机理。
As an important branch of modern enterprise accounting, management accounting needs to provide managers with comprehensive and forward-looking forecast information based on historical records and historical analysis. Predicting the future was originally a more difficult task than recording and analyzing. In the modern society, the covariance, rapid change and drastic change of multivariate have further increased the complexity and uncertainty of the forecast tasks of management accounting. In the simple expansion of management accounting, The level of knowledge is no longer able to deal with this complexity and uncertainty, the innovation of methodological level may be an effective way to further improve the management accounting forecasting method. This paper attempts to explore the mechanism of management accounting forecasting method from the methodological level.