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运用探索性空间数据分析方法及多元统计分析方法分析的结果表明,北京市刑事犯罪数量的空间分布特征结构呈现中心向外围逐级递减的规律,而城市绿化则表现为周边地区绿化率较高,中心及东南部地区绿化率相对较低。北京市刑事犯罪热点区域集中在中心地区,尤其是海淀区和朝阳区刑事犯罪数量构成显著的H-H空间集聚,而这些地区均是城市绿化的冷点区域。北京市城市绿化对刑事犯罪数量影响显著,即增加城市绿化面积会降低刑事犯罪数量。研究结果为制定犯罪预防管控政策,有效降低犯罪数量,提高社会和谐稳定提供了理论基础。
The results of exploratory spatial data analysis and multivariate statistical analysis show that the spatial distribution of the number of criminal crimes in Beijing shows a gradual decline of the center to the periphery, while the urban greening shows the higher greening rate in the surrounding areas, The greening rate in the center and the southeast is relatively low. The hot spots of criminal activities in Beijing are concentrated in the central areas, especially the number of criminal cases in Haidian and Chaoyang districts, which make up the H-H space agglomeration, all of which are the cold spots of urban greening. Urban afforestation in Beijing has a significant impact on the number of criminal offenses, that is, increasing the green area of urban areas will reduce the number of criminal offenses. The results provide a theoretical basis for formulating a crime prevention and control policy, effectively reducing the number of crimes and improving social harmony and stability.