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随着水电产业的快速发展,水电上市企业的运营风险不断增加,研究适用于水电企业的运营风险评价模型已经成为亟待解决的问题。因此本文根据我国水电企业的生产经营现状与风险评价基本要求,引入熵权法和归一法,构建了改进的贝叶斯风险评价模型用于水电上市企业运营风险评价。选取三家水电上市企业的实际数据代入模型进行实证分析并根据计算结果进行比较,计算结果证明改进贝叶斯风险评价模型能够正确反映水电企业的运营风险现状,提高水电企业运营风险评价的准确性。
With the rapid development of hydropower industry, the operational risks of hydropower listed companies are increasing. It is an urgent issue to study the operational risk assessment model applicable to hydropower enterprises. Therefore, based on the current situation of production and operation and the basic requirements of risk assessment of hydropower enterprises in our country, this paper introduces the entropy weight method and the normalization method, and constructs an improved Bayesian risk assessment model for the operational risk assessment of hydropower listed companies. The actual data of the listed companies in three hydropower companies are selected into the model for empirical analysis and compared with the calculated results. The calculation results show that the improved Bayesian risk assessment model can correctly reflect the operational risk status of hydropower enterprises and improve the accuracy of operational risk assessment of hydropower enterprises.