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万亿地方政府债务置换对银行业的影响,从短期看,主要集中在风险结构、资产收益水平等方面;从长期看,则与银行主流业务模式、客户结构以及战略发展方向密切相关日前,财政部下发通知,允许地方政府发行债券来置换存量债务,总额度为1万亿元。此举被称为中国版“QE”。在笔者看来,债务置换尽管有短期效应,但其更重要的意义却在于重塑中央和地方的财政关系,全面深入推动财政体制改革。在这个角度上,将其简单类比为“QE”或“扭转”操作显然并不恰当。在现代经济体系中,政府收支行为对经济、金融运行有着重要影响。在当前深化改革的背景下,债务置换可能产生的影响,远不止于贷款与
In the short run, the impact of the trillion-yuan local government debt replacement on the banking industry will mainly focus on the risk structure and the return on assets. In the long run, it will be closely related to the bank’s mainstream business model, customer structure and strategic direction. Recently, Ministry issued a circular to allow local governments to issue bonds to replace the stock of debt, the total amount of 1 trillion yuan. This move is called China version “QE ”. In my opinion, debt replacement, despite its short-term effects, is of even greater significance in reshaping the fiscal relations between the central and local governments and in deepening the reform of the financial system. In this perspective, it is clearly not appropriate to simply compare its analogy to a “QE” or “twist” operation. In the modern economic system, government revenue and expenditure have an important impact on the economic and financial operations. In the current context of deepening reforms, the possible impact of debt replacement can go far beyond just lending and