一、引言宏观经济学主要划分了长期增长与短期波动两大研究领域,即经济增长理论和经济周期理论。增长理论研究经济的长期趋势,一般设定短期波动对长期趋势不会产生显著的影响,经济系统存在确定性的潜在增长趋势。因此增长理论主要考虑增长速度的决定问题,在此基础上如果存在惟一的稳态(steady-state),则可以进一步考虑收敛速度,分析增长的差异,这种分析构成增长理论的基准框架和步骤。而经济周期理论作为宏观经济学的另一主要内容,主要分析短期经济波动,在研究时设定潜在增 I. INTRODUCTION Macroeconomics mainly divides into two major research fields: long-term growth and short-term volatility, namely economic growth theory and economic cycle theory. Growth theory to study the long-term economic trends, the general set short-term fluctuations in the long-term trends will not have a significant impact on the economic system there is a definite potential for growth. Therefore, the growth theory mainly considers the decision of the growth rate. Based on this, if there is only steady-state, the convergence speed can be further considered to analyze the differences in growth. This analysis constitutes the benchmark framework and steps of the growth theory . The economic cycle theory as another major macroeconomic content, the main analysis of short-term economic fluctuations in the research set potential increase