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4D轨迹估算根据飞行计划中的相关信息对航空器未来的运动轨迹进行预测,生成连续的四维飞行轨迹,是空中交通管制系统的一项基础技术,能为冲突探测与解脱、流量管理等实际管制工作提供必要的数据基础。通过结合空管系统运行与航班飞行特点,针对4D轨迹估算误差这一问题设计了误差分析算法。利用空管自动化系统实际运行历史数据对误差分析算法进行验证,分析轨迹估算误差与推算时间之间的关系,使用线性最小二乘法进行曲线拟合,得到轨迹估算误差多项式。误差分析算法能为4D轨迹估算准确性提供验证手段,提高空管运行安全,具有一定的应用意义。
4D Trajectory Estimation Forecasting the future trajectory of an aircraft based on relevant information in the flight plan and generating a continuous four-dimensional flight path is a basic technology of the air traffic control system and can provide practical control for conflict detection and release and traffic management Provide the necessary data base. By combining the characteristics of air traffic control system and flight flight, an error analysis algorithm is designed for the problem of 4D trajectory estimation error. The error analysis algorithm is validated by the historical data of the actual operation of the ATC system. The relationship between the trajectory estimation error and the estimated time is analyzed. The linear least square method is used for curve fitting, and the trajectory estimation error polynomial is obtained. The error analysis algorithm can provide verification means for the accuracy of 4D trajectory estimation and improve the safety of ATC, which has some practical significance.