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在世界金融危机冲击下,世界经济将在2009年陷入衰退,对我国出口带来较大影响,我国经济下行压力明显加大,企业效益下滑和产能过剩矛盾更加突显。国家信息中心经济预测部首席经济学家祝宝良预测,虽然积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策能够避免经济在短期内出现过快下滑,使2009年经济增速达到8%左右。但我国经济正处于4年左右的库存调整周期和9年左右的设备更新周期的叠加调整阶段,经济增长速度还会下降,调整将持续2-3年甚至更长的时间。
Under the impact of the world financial crisis, the world economy will fall into recession in 2009, which will have a great impact on China’s exports. The downward pressure on China’s economy will significantly increase. The contradiction between the declining efficiency of enterprises and overcapacity will become even more prominent. Zhu Bao-liang, chief economist of the National Information Center’s Ministry of Economic Forecasting, predicted that while positive fiscal policies and moderately easy monetary policies could prevent the economy from falling too fast in the short term, the economic growth in 2009 will reach about 8%. However, China’s economy is in the process of stock adjustment of about 4 years and equipment replacement of about 9 years. The rate of economic growth will also decline, and the adjustment will last for 2-3 years or even longer.