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目的评价福建省传染病监测自动预警信息系统的运行效果。方法对福建省2008-2009年传染病自动预警监测数据进行描述性分析,并与同期发病数及突发公共卫生事件进行比对。结果预警信号以P90为主,时空模型的响应率最高,单病例模型的疑似率、阳性率居首位。福州、龙岩、厦门地区的响应率最高,福州的信号疑似率居首位,泉州的信号阳性率居首位。甲型H1N1流感的响应率、疑似率居首位,霍乱的阳性率居首位。超过50%的信号均能在1 h内响应。对疑似事件进行判断的方式主要为监测数据分析与电话核实。结论预警系统能对所涉及的传染病暴发事件有效预警,但特异度偏低。预警信号数与发病数及所涉及病种的关注度有关。
Objective To evaluate the operation effect of automatic warning information system for infectious disease surveillance in Fujian Province. Methods A descriptive analysis of the data of automatic early warning surveillance of infectious diseases in Fujian Province during 2008-2009 was made and compared with the number of outbreaks and public health emergencies in the same period. Results The early warning signal was mainly P90, and the response rate of spatio-temporal model was the highest. Suspect rate and positive rate of single-case model ranked first. Fuzhou, Longyan, Xiamen, the highest response rate, the highest signal suspect Fuzhou ranked first Quanzhou signal positive rate ranked first. Response rate of H1N1 influenza, the highest suspicion rate, the highest rate of cholera in the first place. More than 50% of the signals respond within 1 h. The methods of judging suspected events are mainly monitoring data analysis and telephone verification. Conclusion The early-warning system can effectively warn the involved infectious disease outbreaks, but the specificity is low. The number of early warning signals is related to the number of cases and the degree of concern of the diseases involved.