论文部分内容阅读
本文首先回顾了极值理论方法的原理及修改前后极值分布函数的对比,并结合华北地区1830～2010年共181年的历史地震资料和现代小震资料,应用修改后的极值理论方法对该研究区域未来50年的地震危险性进行估算分析。研究结果表明,修改后的极值分布函数更能接近实际观测情况:较大地震的复发周期变长了;随着时间的增加,震级趋于研究区域极大震级上限,且华北地区未来50年发生7级以上地震的概率较小。
In this paper, the principle of extreme value method and the comparison of extreme value distribution function before and after modification are reviewed firstly. Based on the historical data of 181 years from 1830 to 2010 in North China and the data of modern small earthquakes, the modified extreme value theory is applied The seismic risk of the study area in the next 50 years is estimated and analyzed. The results show that the modified extreme value distribution function is closer to the observed situation: the recurrence period of larger earthquakes becomes longer; with the increase of time, the magnitude tends to the upper limit of great magnitude of the studied area, and in the next 50 years in North China The probability of a magnitude 7 or higher earthquake is smaller.