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文章对CPI“篮子商品”中非食品类和食品类商品的价格传导机制进行考察,采用2005-2010年月度价格指数数据实证分析了两个产业链渠道的上中下游价格传导效应。研究结果显示,两个渠道内的价格指数之间都存在稳定的长期均衡关系,但短期内食品渠道内的价格传导比非食品渠道顺畅,而非食品渠道内存在显著的价格倒逼机制。当两个产业链上的价格各自受到外部冲击时,在食品渠道中能显著传递至下游的CPI,但在非食品渠道中传递至CPI的效应并不明显。
This article examines the price transmission mechanism of CPI “Basket Products ” in China’s non-food and food commodities, and uses the monthly price index data from 2005 to 2010 to empirically analyze the price transmission effects of the two middle and lower reaches of the industrial chain channels. The results show that there is a stable long-term equilibrium relationship between the price indices in both channels. However, in the short term, the price channel in the food channel is smoother than the non-food channel, and there is a significant price-forcing mechanism in the non-food channel. When the prices on the two chains are each externally shocked, they can be significantly transmitted to downstream CPIs in food channels, but the effects of CPI delivery in non-food channels are not significant.