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本文利用区域间投入产出表的基本流量数据,采用MillerRound模型测算了我国东、中、西部三大地区的区域内乘数效应和区域间的溢出与反馈效应。结果显示,东部地区内部各区域之间的产业关联度较高,区域内乘数效应大;而中部和西部地区内部各区域之间的产业关联度较低,尤其是西部地区产业分布分散,区域内乘数效应小。总体来看,东部地区经济增长对中西部地区溢出效应较低,而中西部地区对东部地区溢出效应较高。这为我国区域差距的持续扩大提供了新解释。
In this paper, we use the MillerRound model to calculate the regional multiplier effects and the spillover and feedback effects among the three major regions in the east, middle and west regions of China by using the basic flow data of the inter-regional input-output tables. The results show that there is a high degree of industrial correlation among the regions in the eastern region and a large multiplier effect in the region. However, the industrial relations among the regions in the central and western regions are relatively low, especially in the scattered distribution of industries in the western region. The multiplier effect is small. Overall, the spillover effect of economic growth in the eastern region on the central and western regions is low, while the spillover effect on the eastern region is higher in the central and western regions. This provides a new explanation for the continuous expansion of the regional disparities in our country.