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中国古代的朝代更迭是中国数量经济史研究的重要组成部分。陈强应用计量方法分析中国古代朝代更迭的论文《中原王朝被征服的计量历史分析》存在以下缺陷:(1)过于轻率否定“个人素质说”和“气候变化说”;(2)以平均水旱灾发生率替代边际水旱灾发生率(无法体现气候变迁);(3)解释变量的选择不当;(4)中原王朝定义与传统史学不一致。
The change of dynasties in ancient China is an important part of the study of the history of the quantitative economy in China. CHEN Qiang’s essay “Metrological Historical Analysis of the Conquest of the Central Plains” has the following defects: (1) overly negation of “personal quality” and “climate change”; (2) (3) The choice of explanatory variables is not appropriate; (4) The definition of Central Plains dynasty is inconsistent with the traditional history.