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本文从住房资产的消费和投资的二重性出发,分析了住房资产市场的内在特征,进而揭示了住房市场价格的内生波动特征。本文的结论是:尽管根据一般均衡理论,实现住房市场(或更一般地讲整个房地产市场)竞争性的市场均衡价格意味着效率最大,但是,由住房资产及其市场的内生特征破坏了住房价格趋向均衡的过程,因此住房市场价格的内生波动必然偏离均衡状态。这个结论也很容易推演至整个房地产市场。这一结论的政策含义是:在监测住房市场价格波动时,必须在充分考虑住房市场内在特征的基础上,以一般均衡理论为参照系,寻找能够逐渐接近住房市场一般价格均衡的条件和途径,而不是试图实现住房市场的价格均衡。
Based on the duality of housing assets’ consumption and investment, this paper analyzes the intrinsic characteristics of housing assets market, and reveals the endogenous volatility of housing market prices. The conclusion of this paper is that while it is more efficient to achieve a competitive market equilibrium price in the housing market (or more generally the entire real estate market) according to the general equilibrium theory, housing is destroyed by the endogenous characteristics of housing assets and their markets The price tends to be balanced process, so the housing market price volatility inevitably deviate from equilibrium. This conclusion is also easily deduced to the entire real estate market. The policy implication of this conclusion is that when monitoring the price fluctuations in the housing market, we must take the general characteristics of the housing market into account and take the general equilibrium theory as the frame of reference to find the conditions and ways of gradually approaching the general price equilibrium in the housing market, Instead of trying to achieve a balanced price in the housing market.