石油作为战略资源和经济资源,其价格波动对世界各国经济都产生影响。本文在对国际原油价格波动状况分析基础上,采用协整理论、误差修正模型及脉冲响应函数对其影响因素进行定量分析。结果表明:影响石油价格变化长期因素主要在供需层面,而短期变动主要由突发事件等不确定因素。 As a strategic resource and an economic resource, oil price fluctuations have an impact on the economies of all countries in the world. Based on the analysis of the fluctuation of international crude oil prices, this paper uses cointegration theory, error correction model and impulse response function to quantitatively analyze the influencing factors. The results show that: the long-term factors that affect the oil price change are mainly in the supply and demand level, while the short-term changes are mainly caused by unexpected events and other uncertainties.