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本文运用1990年以来全国经济增长、经济结构、财政收入、居民收入等数据通过变异系数、弹性系数、产业结构系数等定量方法结合定性分析描述了四者之间关系变动的数量特征和趋势,使用较前沿的偏最小二乘估计方法和空间面板计量方法以人均GDP为研究对象构建经济增长模型,分别研究了全国及各省域经济增长与经济结构、财政收入、居民收入的数量关系,并通过模型和相对误差法验证了以上几个统计指标之间的匹配度,最后建立组合模型对2010年有关统计指标进行了预测。
Based on the data of national economic growth, economic structure, fiscal revenue and household income since 1990, this paper describes the quantitative features and trends of the changes in the relationship between the four variables through the quantitative analysis such as coefficient of variation, elasticity coefficient and industrial structure coefficient. The forward-looking partial least squares estimation method and the spatial panel measurement method build a model of economic growth with GDP per capita as the research object, and study the quantitative relationship between economic growth and economic structure, fiscal revenue and household income in the whole country and each province separately. And the relative error method to verify the match between the above several statistical indicators, and finally establish a combined model of the 2010 statistical indicators were predicted.