论文部分内容阅读
基于2000-2013年房地产市场相关月度时间序列数据,构建货币政策房地产市场传导机制的理论框架,建立8个变量的结构向量自回归模型(SVAR)分析货币政策、房地产供给需求和消费投资等实体经济变量的相互关系,研究表明货币政策尤其是利率政策能显著影响房地产供给需求,但房地产需求对消费的正向冲击影响十分有限,对投资反而产生负向冲击。由此提出,利率政策应当关注房地产价格波动,避免房地产价格非理性上涨对宏观经济的负面影响。
Based on the monthly time-series data of real estate market from 2000 to 2013, this paper constructs the theoretical framework of the monetary policy in the real estate market and establishes a structural vector autoregressive model (SVAR) for 8 variables to analyze the real economy of monetary policy, real estate supply demand and consumer investment The results show that monetary policy, especially interest rate policy, can significantly affect real estate supply demand. However, the positive impact of real estate demand on consumption is very limited, but negatively impact on investment. Therefore, the interest rate policy should pay attention to the volatility of real estate prices and avoid the negative impact of the irrational rise of real estate prices on the macroeconomy.