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目的航空维修差错是导致航空事故的重要诱因,预防维修差错对于保障航空安全具有重要现实意义。为有针对性实施维修差错风险防范,有必要实现维修差错人误概率量化以准确查找维修行为缺陷。方法根据航空维修人为差错产生机理,在总结分析人因可靠性分析(HRA)人误量化方法基础上,结合航空维修行为过程,提出适用于航空维修人误概率计算的人因失误率预测法(Technique for Human Error Rate Prediction,THERP)和认知可靠性预测法(Human Cognitive Reliability,HCR)综合分析模型。结果通过CESSNA172主轮更换维修差错算例进行人误概率计算验证。结论基于THERP+HCR的人误风险计算方法可行有效,为评估维修差错风险和优先控制差错诱因提供参考。
The purpose of aviation maintenance errors is an important cause of aviation accidents, prevention of maintenance errors for the protection of aviation safety has important practical significance. It is necessary to quantify the error probability of maintenance error in order to accurately find the defect of maintenance action in order to prevent the risk of targeted maintenance error. Based on the human error quantification method of Human Factors Reliability Analysis (HRA) and the process of aviation maintenance activities, the method is proposed to predict the human error rate which is suitable for the calculation of the error probability of aviation maintenance manpower Technique for Human Error Rate Prediction (THERP) and Cognitive Reliability Prediction (HCR) comprehensive analysis model. Results The calculation of human error probability was verified by the example of replacing maintenance error with CESSNA172 main wheel. Conclusion The human error risk calculation method based on THERP + HCR is feasible and effective, which provides a reference for assessing the risks of maintenance errors and giving priority to control errors.