从面向21世纪的视角看,未来10年将是世界电信史上技术发展最活跃的时期,也是一百多年电信管理体制全面转轨的时期,两者的结合正在深刻地改变电信网的面貌和未来的电信技术走向。作为具有100年历史的电信网正经历着历史上最深刻的变化。笔者认为,在未来10年中,电信网发展的主要战略趋势有:网络业务的数据化趋势,网络的宽带化趋势,网络的光纤化趋势,网络接入的无线化趋势,三网融合的大趋势。★网络业务的数据化趋势 100年来直至今天,电信网的主要业务一直是电话业务,因而电信网一般称为电话网。传统的电话网设计都是以恒定的对称的话路量为对象的,成本和利润处于严格管制之下,网络呈资本密集型,网络容量与话务容量高度一致(话路本位),业务和网络均呈稳定低速增长。近10年来,全世界电话用户的增长 From the perspective of facing the 21st century, the next 10 years will be the most dynamic period of technological development in the history of telecommunications in the world and a period of more than 100 years when the telecommunications management system is fully transformed. The combination of the two is profoundly changing the face and future of telecommunications networks Telecommunication Technology Trends. As the 100-year-old telecommunications network is experiencing the most profound changes in history. The author believes that in the next 10 years, the development of telecommunications networks, the main strategic trends are: the trend of the data network services, the trend of broadband networks, fiber-optic networks trend, the wireless network access trends, large triple play trend. ★ The trend of digital data network business 100 years until now, the main business of the telecommunications network has been the telephone business, so the telecommunications network is generally called the telephone network. Traditional telephone network design is based on a constant symmetrical traffic volume, the cost and profit under strict control, the network is capital-intensive, network capacity and traffic capacity are highly consistent (speech-based), business and network All showed a steady low-speed growth. Nearly 10 years, the growth of telephone subscribers worldwide