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建立应急预案是应对突发事件最有效的方法。为解决应急预案不够完备、灵活性差等问题,提出了多阶段应急决策的分析方法。通过对突发事件的风险分析,研究不同场景、不同阶段下应急决策的制定方法,应用WinQSB提供的决策树模型,计算得到不同场景下的可能决策结果。运用多阶段情景决策方法对某市一化工厂的泄漏事故进行实例计算,得出了合理的决策结果,对紧急情况下的现场应急有重要辅助作用,提高了事故现场应急决策的效率和准确性,有效地控制事故风险,减少事故损失,提高决策者应对突发事件的能力。
Establishing contingency plans is the most effective way to deal with emergencies. In order to solve the emergency plan is not complete enough, flexibility and other issues, proposed a multi-stage emergency decision analysis method. Through the risk analysis of emergencies, the methods of making emergency decisions in different scenarios and stages are studied. The decision tree model provided by WinQSB is used to calculate the possible decision-making results in different scenarios. The multi-stage scenario decision-making method is used to calculate a case of a chemical plant’s spill in a city, and the reasonable decision-making result is obtained, which plays an important auxiliary role in on-site emergency in emergency and improves the efficiency and accuracy of emergency decision-making on accident site , Effectively control the risk of accidents, reduce the loss of accidents and enhance the ability of decision-makers to deal with emergencies.