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本文首先阐述了对外直接投资对国际收支影响的基本理论。然后,对中国对外直接投资对中国国际收支影响进行了理论分析。在此基础之上,采集1983年-2004年数据,对中国对外直接投资对中国国际收支影响进行了实证分析。实证分析显示,中国的对外直接投资,由于规模较小等方面原因,对国际收支中经常项目影响不大,对金融账户影响不稳定,与国际收支余额不存在因果关系。
This paper first describes the basic theory of the impact of OFDI on the balance of payments. Then, it makes a theoretical analysis of the impact of China’s foreign direct investment on China’s balance of payments. On this basis, we collect data from 1983 to 2004 and make an empirical analysis of the impact of China’s foreign direct investment on China’s balance of payments. Empirical analysis shows that, due to its small scale and so on, China’s OFDI has little impact on the current account in the balance of payments, its impact on the financial account is not stable, and there is no causal relationship between the balance of payments and the international balance of payments.