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针对机械事故频发,为预防和控制事故,依据安全评价发展方向,结合安全系统工程、模糊可靠性理论、人因可靠性技术和安全经济学,从人-机-环3方面分析风险评价因素,建立符合客观实际的风险评价模型,提出包括人为因素、机械设备和环境在内的基本事件失效概率估算方法;以安全经济学的角度将事故严重度量化为风险经济损失,根据每个风险因素的风险概率和风险经济损失来选择风险评价项目,通过检查评价项目状况,最终得出系统风险度,从而形成关于机械系统的定量风险概率与经济性安全评价方法。并给出起重机大车运行机构的工程示例,验证该方法的正确性和可行性。
In order to prevent and control accidents, according to the direction of safety evaluation, combined with safety system engineering, fuzzy reliability theory, human reliability technology and safety economics, this paper analyzes risk assessment factors , Establish a risk assessment model that is in line with the objective reality and put forward a method of estimating the probability of failure of basic events including human factors, machinery and equipment and the environment; quantify the severity of the accident as the risk economic loss from the perspective of safety economics; and according to each risk factor Risk probability and risk economic loss to select the risk assessment project, by checking the status of the project, and ultimately come to the system risk, thus forming a quantitative probability of risk on the mechanical system and economic security evaluation method. The engineering example of the crane operation mechanism is given and the correctness and feasibility of the method are verified.