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网络空间中信息安全防御态势难以进行精确、自主、完整可控的评估,针对这种情况提出基于模糊动态贝叶斯网络的态势评估方法,对防御系统中的态势因素在不同时间的状态进行模糊和概率处理,构建了态势感知和态势估计模型,将初始条件概率、状态转移概率及观测数据输入建立的模型中进行仿真实验,将仿真结果与静态贝叶斯网络模型评估的结果进行对比,实验结果表明使用这种方法进行评估综合了更多态势要素间的反馈关系和观测信息,可以较好地反映网络空间作战信息安全防御态势动态变化的客观规律,做到精确快速、主动高效的评估。
The situation of information security defense in cyberspace is difficult to accurately, independently and completely controllable assessment. In view of this situation, a situation assessment method based on fuzzy dynamic Bayesian network is proposed, and the situation factors in the defense system are fuzzy at different times And probabilistic processing, a situational awareness and situation estimation model is constructed. The initial conditional probability, state transition probability and observation data are input into the established model for simulation. The simulation results are compared with the results of the static Bayesian network model evaluation. The experimental The results show that using this method to evaluate and integrate the feedback relationship and observation information of more situational elements can better reflect the objective law of the dynamic change of the information security defense posture in cyberspace and make accurate, rapid and proactively efficient assessment.