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文章利用投入产出模型,研究对外贸易对广东省CO2排放量的影响,并利用Divisia指数分解模型,解释了造成这种影响的原因。投入产出方法的实证结果表明,对外贸易不利于省内CO2减排,但有利于降低广东省的碳排放强度。Divisia指数分解的结果表明,协调结构效应和技术效应的“交叉”作用是降低贸易CO2排放强度的关键;广东省的贸易顺差额是导致广东省CO2净内含量顺差的主要因素,技术效应和结构效应可以减少CO2贸易顺差,但是这两个效应所起的作用相对较小。
This paper uses the input-output model to study the impact of foreign trade on CO2 emissions in Guangdong Province and uses the Divisia index decomposition model to explain the reasons for this. Empirical results of input-output methods show that foreign trade is not conducive to the reduction of CO2 emissions in the province, but it is conducive to reducing the intensity of carbon emissions in Guangdong. Divisia index decomposition results show that the “cross” effect of coordinating structural effects and technological effects is the key to reducing the intensity of trade CO2 emissions. The trade surplus in Guangdong Province is the main factor leading to the net surplus of CO2 in Guangdong Province. The technical effect And the structural effect can reduce the CO2 trade surplus, but the two effects play a relatively small role.