在城镇化和农产品价格保护不力的双重作用下,中国耕地保护的形势更加严峻。然而,现有研究极少关注耕地保护与农业人口的溢出的内在联系,从而忽视了农业人口溢出对耕地保护和农业发展的正外部性,对农业人口转移的历史趋势理解不足。本文研究了中国耕地保护与农业人口转移的内在联系,发现在要素二元市场下,劳动力转移为要素价格机制的统一提供了有利条件,耕地保护进程中的农业人口转移具有历史必然性。新的历史时期,农业人口向外转移依然是必然的战略选择,政府应当更加关注农业人口转移、发展和回流等问题。 Under the dual role of urbanization and the weak protection of agricultural products, the situation of arable land protection in China is even more severe. However, the existing researches pay little attention to the inherent relationship between the protection of cultivated land and the spillover of agricultural population, thus neglecting the positive externality of agricultural population spillover to the protection of cultivated land and agricultural development, and failing to comprehend the historical trend of agricultural population transfer. This paper studies the relationship between cultivated land protection and agricultural population transfer in China and finds that under the dual factor market, the transfer of labor provides the favorable conditions for the unification of the factor price mechanism. The transfer of agricultural population in the process of cultivated land protection is historically inevitable. In the new historical period, the transfer of agricultural population is still an inevitable strategic choice. The government should pay more attention to such problems as the transfer, development and return of agricultural population.