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传染病是人类社会面对的严重威胁之一,也是困扰世界医学界的长期难题.文中首先对传染病的传播机理进行了分析研究,将其传播分为自然传播和人为控制两种状态,然后以微分方程理论为基础,运用反馈控制理论分别建立了自然传播状态的闭环自激正反馈微分方程模型和有人为控制时的闭环负反馈微分方程模型,并引入控制度概念把上述两种反馈模型结合起来以反映人为控制因素对传染病传播系统的影响,最后以2003年爆发的SARS为例采用计算机编程仿真,结果与实际比较吻合,并提出了应对传染病的若干对策,为传染病的传播预测、有效预防和控制提供了一定的理论依据.
Infectious disease is one of the serious threats to human society and also a long-term problem that plagues the medical community in the world.In this paper, the transmission mechanism of infectious diseases is first analyzed and divided into two states: natural transmission and artificial control, and then Based on the theory of differential equations, the closed-loop self-excited feedback equation with natural propagation and the closed-loop negative feedback differential equation model with artificial control are respectively established by using feedback control theory. The concept of control degree is introduced to integrate the above two feedback models Finally, taking the SARS outbreak in 2003 as an example, a computer programming simulation is carried out. The result is in good agreement with the actual situation and a number of countermeasures are put forward to deal with the communicable diseases. Prediction, effective prevention and control provide some theoretical basis.