以逐步回归法筛选出对铜川市郊区小麦产量影响显著的5个因素为播种至拔节的降水供求比(x_1),偶发性灾害(x_5),耕地亩均农家肥(x_7),耕地亩均化肥(x_8),每头役畜平均耕地面积(x_9)。它们包括了影响亩产平均数变异的97.26％,与亩产的定量关系为:y=13.7768+0.7742x_1-10.3122x_5+47.2608x_7+4.6261x_8-1.6586x_9。各因素对亩产影响的显著程度由大到小是:x_1、x_5、x_8、x_5。x_7。由产量分解可知,趋势亩产经历下降、上升,在徘徊中下降3个阶段。气候亩产随年份剧烈波动。产量长期以来低而不稳。 The five factors influencing the yield of wheat in the suburbs of Tongchuan are as follows: precipitation-jointing ratio (x_1), sporadic disasters (x_5), farmland manure (x_7), farmland mu fertilizer (x_8), average cultivated area per worker (x_9). They include 97.26% of the variation of average per mu yield, and the quantitative relationship with per mu is: y = 13.7768 + 0.7742x_1-10.3122x_5 + 47.2608x_7 + 4.6261x_8-1.6586x_9. The significant degree of influence of various factors on the mu yield is: x_1, x_5, x_8, x_5. x_7. From the decomposition of production we can see that the trend of decline in per-mu yield, rising, falling in the hovering in three stages. Climate mu produce fluctuates strongly with the year. The output has been low and unstable for a long time.