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分税制至今,中国地方政府债务不断扩张,为地方财政风险埋下了极大的隐患。通过实证研究发现:1995~2011年,西部某省地方政府债务增长主要由预算支出拉动,尤其在1998年和2008年实施的两轮积极财政政策作用下更加明显。进一步从支出结构贡献分解来看,真正对地方政府债务具有较大拉动作用的是人员工资,平均贡献率高达51.36%,而民生事业支出仅在积极财政政策下才发挥短期拉动效应,平均贡献率为31.50%,社会管理支出和其它事务支出作用较小且趋于稳定。据此提出相关政策建议。
Since the tax sharing system, the local government debt in China has continuously expanded, laying a great potential hazard for the local fiscal risks. The empirical study shows that from 1995 to 2011, the growth of local government debt in a certain province in western China was mainly driven by the budget expenditures, especially under the two rounds of active fiscal policies implemented in 1998 and 2008. Further from the disaggregation of disbursement of contribution structure, the real contribution to local government debt is staff salaries, the average contribution rate as high as 51.36%, while the people’s livelihood expenditure only under the active fiscal policy to play a short-term pull effect, the average contribution rate Was 31.50%. Social administration expenditure and other affairs expenditure played a smaller role and stabilized. Accordingly, the relevant policy recommendations.