论文部分内容阅读
伴随快速工业化、城镇化进程,中国耕地非农化不断加快,由此带来碳排放迅速增加、生态环境和温室效应不断恶化。鉴于此,该文将耕地非农化与碳收支纳入统一框架,运用系统动力学方法模拟1996-2020年间耕地非农化带来的碳收支盈亏量。结果表明:1)整体分析判断,中国耕地非农化处于递增趋势且空间分布主要集中在东部,并呈现耕地规模递减、建设用地递增状态。2)模拟结果显示,1996-2020年全国耕地由1.293×108hm2减少到1.204×108hm2,建设用地从2.407×107 hm2增加到3.073×107 hm2,并且耕地非农化碳汇量由7.90×108t减少到7.48×108 t,碳源量从9.34×109t增加到1.17×1010 t。3)区域比较发现,全国耕地非农化碳收支表现为碳源且总体上呈递增趋势,并且2020年东部地区碳支出量最大为5.029×109 t,西部次之为2.261×109 t,中部略小于西部为2.216×109 t,东北地区最小为1.084×109 t。
Accompanied by rapid industrialization and urbanization, the non-agriculturalization of cultivated land in China is accelerating. As a result, carbon emissions have rapidly risen and the ecological environment and the greenhouse effect have been deteriorating. In view of this, the article takes the non-agriculturalization of farmland and carbon budget into the unified framework, and uses the system dynamics method to simulate the carbon revenue and expenditure caused by the non-agriculturalization of cultivated land during 1996-2020. The results show that: 1) The overall analysis shows that the non-agriculturalization of arable land in China is in an increasing trend and the spatial distribution is mainly concentrated in the east, showing the decreasing scale of arable land and the increasing state of construction land. 2) The simulation results show that from 1996 to 2020, the cultivated land in China decreased from 1.293 × 108hm2 to 1.204 × 108hm2, the construction land increased from 2.407 × 107 hm2 to 3.073 × 107 hm2, and the non-agricultural carbon sink from cultivated land decreased from 7.90 × 108t to 7.48 × 108t, the carbon source increased from 9.34 × 109t to 1.17 × 1010t. 3) According to the regional comparison, the non-agricultural carbon balance of cultivated land in China shows a carbon source and shows an overall increasing trend. In 2020, the maximum carbon expenditure in the eastern part of China is 5.029 × 109 t and that of the west is 2.261 × 109 t. Slightly less than the west of 2.216 × 109 t, the northeast minimum of 1.084 × 109 t.