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目的探讨在医院住院量的影响因素和在因素影响下对住院量进行预测,为医院管理者作出科学决策提供依据。方法应用EXCEL软件和相关公式,以灰色关联度筛选相关因素,并建立GM(1,2)预测模型。结果住院量关联影响最大的因素是门急诊总量,GM(1,2)预测模型为y=(41910-0.0616x2(1))e-0.8986k+0.0616x2(1)(k+1)预测值的相对误差小于20%,模型精度为优秀(C=0.219,P=1.000),预测效果好。2015年~2019年医院住院量预测值分别为215961,250570,290792,337505,391740。结论灰色预测模型结果可为管理决策提供依据和信息,医院在面对增长迅速的住院量要提高其内涵建设,以满足患者需求和适应发展要求。
Objective To explore the influencing factors of hospitalization in hospital and to predict the hospitalization under the influence of factors to provide the basis for hospital managers to make scientific decisions. Methods EXCEL software and related formulas were used to screen related factors by gray relational degree, and a GM (1, 2) prediction model was established. Results The most influential factor of hospitalization incidence was the total amount of outpatient and emergency department. The prediction model of GM (1,2) was y = (41910-0.0616x2 (1)) e-0.8986k + 0.0616x2 (1) (k + 1) The relative error of the values is less than 20%, the accuracy of the model is excellent (C = 0.219, P = 1.000), and the prediction effect is good. 2015 ~ 2019 hospital inpatient estimates are respectively 215961,250570,290792,337505,391740. Conclusion The results of gray prediction model can provide the basis and information for management decision-making. Hospitals should increase their connotation construction in the face of rapid growth of hospitalization in order to meet the needs of patients and adapt to the development requirements.