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霜冻是宁夏一种主要农业气象灾害,对其风险评估及区划,可为区域防灾减灾提供有效依据。以宁夏23个气象站1981-2010年日气象观测数据、社会经济数据及地理信息数据作为基础资料,采用风险指数法、层次分析法、加权综合评分法等方法,利用ARCGIS绘图软件对宁夏晚霜冻灾害风险进行分析和评价,完成霜冻灾害风险区划图。结果表明,宁夏晚霜冻的孕灾环境敏感性复杂,北部灌区敏感性低于山区;致灾因子危险性普遍偏高;承灾体脆弱性北部灌区大部偏高,南部次之,中部最低;防灾减灾能力北部灌区最高,中南部山区偏低;晚霜冻灾害风险大的区域集中在北部灌区的永宁、吴忠及南部的彭阳等地,风险小的区域集中在灌区北部和中部大部。
Frost is a major agricultural meteorological disaster in Ningxia. The assessment and division of its risk can provide an effective basis for regional disaster prevention and mitigation. Based on meteorological observation data, socio-economic data and geographic information data of 23 meteorological stations in Ningxia from 1981 to 2010, the methods of risk index, analytic hierarchy process and weighted synthetic score were used to analyze the effects of ARCGIS mapping software on Ningxia night frost Disaster risk analysis and evaluation to complete the frost disaster risk zoning map. The results show that the sensitivity of Ningxia night frost to the earthquake disaster is complex, the sensitivity of the northern irrigation district is lower than that of the mountainous area, and the risk of the disaster-causing factor is generally high. The vulnerability of the disaster-bearing body is mostly high in the northern irrigation area, followed by the southern part and lowest in the middle part. Disaster prevention and mitigation capacity is highest in northern irrigation areas and low in central and southern mountainous areas. Areas with large risk of late frost disaster are concentrated in Yongning and Wuzhong in the Northern Irrigation District and Pengyang in the south, with less risky areas concentrated in the northern and central parts of the Irrigation District.