论文部分内容阅读
以出口地理集中度和出口不稳定性指数为研究变量,采用多地区方差分解模型,实证分析了中国旅游服务出口地理集中度与出口不稳定性的关系。结果显示:中国旅游服务出口主要集中于港澳台地区,而出口的波动却主要来自其它国家和地区;剔除港澳台地区后,旅游服务出口集中于韩国、俄罗斯、泰国、法国等加剧了出口波动,而拓展其它地区尤其是马来西亚、菲律宾、蒙古、印尼、印度等不仅可以扩大旅游服务规模,而且可以降低总体的出口不稳定性。因此,主动的目标式的旅游市场拓展战略是我国旅游业稳定发展的必然选择。
Taking export geography concentration index and export instability index as the research variables, the multi-region variance decomposition model is used to empirically analyze the relationship between the export geography concentration and the export instability of China’s tourism service. The results show that the export of China’s tourism services is mainly concentrated in Hong Kong, Maucao and Taiwan, while the export fluctuations mainly come from other countries and regions. Excluding Hong Kong, Maucao and Taiwan, the export of tourism services is concentrated in South Korea, Russia, Thailand and France, The expansion of other regions, especially Malaysia, the Philippines, Mongolia, Indonesia and India, can not only expand the scale of tourism services but also reduce the overall export instability. Therefore, the active goal-oriented tourism market expansion strategy is the inevitable choice for the stable development of China’s tourism industry.