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滚装运输具有安全、环保等许多优点,川江滚装运输近几年发展较之初期呈现放缓趋势,主要是由于沿线的公路运输建设不断高速发展,分担了很多滚装运输的货源。为了实现滚装运输和公路运输的整体社会效益最大化,分析滚装运输和公路运输的货运分担率变得十分必要。当下关于不通运输通道内分担率的相关文献主要着眼于从客运角度对交通运输通道不同运输方式进行分析。本文主要运用Logit模型为理论基础,结合效用理论和滚装运输和公路运输这两种运输方式的特性,给出了在运用Logit模型预测通道内货运分担率时应选取的特型变量。
Ro-Ro transport has many advantages, such as safety and environmental protection. The development of Ro-Ro transport in Sichuan has shown a slowdown in recent years compared with the initial stage. This is mainly due to the continuous high-speed development of road transport along the route, sharing many of the ro-ro transport sources. In order to maximize the overall social benefits of ro-ro transport and road transport, it is necessary to analyze the freight share of ro-ro transport and road transport. The current literature on the share of unreasonable transport corridors mainly focuses on the analysis of different modes of transport for the transport corridors from the perspective of passenger transport. In this paper, we mainly use the Logit model as the theoretical basis. Combining with the utility theory and the characteristics of the two transport modes, Ro-Ro transport and road transport, this paper presents the special variables that should be selected when using Logit model to forecast the freight share in the passage.