在获得爆炸性成功的著作《非理性繁荣》一书中,罗伯特·希勒,一位智力与运气俱佳的经济学家,相信心理因素是驱动20世纪90年代美国股市繁荣的主要原因。一股强烈的乐观主义情绪,对商业的崇拜,与充斥四处的新闻报道,使人们当真开始相信泡沫永不破灭。在很多时刻,人们被情绪驱动,他们对真实不屑一顾。 “人们今天谈论中国,就像1999年谈论互联网。”这是2004年3月《华尔街日报》一篇文章的开头。尽管将今天的中国繁荣与互联网泡沫类比异常拙劣,因为后者只拥有可能无法实现的期待,而前者则拥有更坚实的基础,并已经源源不断地产出成果,但我们同样需要警惕的是,外界与我们自己对于中国概念的过分热烈的谈论,有可能正在形成某种语言的泡沫,语言的中国与现实的中国可能正在出现分离。 In his book, Explosive Success, “Irrational Prosperity,” Robert Shiller, an economist with good intelligence and luck, believes psychological factors are the main reasons driving the prosperity of the U.S. stock market in the 1990s. A strong sense of optimism, business worship, and full coverage of the news reports so that people really began to believe that the bubble will never be shattered. In many moments, people are emotionally driven and dismissive of the truth. “People talk about China today, just like talking about the Internet in 1999.” This is the beginning of an article in the March 2004 Wall Street Journal. Although the analogy between today’s boom in China and the Internet bubble is very poor because the latter have only expectations that may not be achieved, while the former have a more solid foundation and have been producing results continuously, we also need to be wary of the fact that the outside world With our own overly heated talk about the concept of China, it is possible that a bubble of some kind of language, a language of China and a reality of China may be emerging as a separation.