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本文利用西部地区1998~2011年的相关数据,运用面板VAR模型研究金融服务对工农业发展的影响。研究结果表明,西部地区金融服务促进了工农业协调发展,金融服务对工农业发展均为显著的正向促进作用,但对农业发展的促进作用要明显大于对工业的促进作用,即金融服务对农业发展的边际效应大于对工业的发展;随着时间的推移,金融服务对工业发展的贡献具有很强的持久效应,而对农业发展的贡献持久效应较弱。相关的政策建议是:优化信贷结构,强化对“三农”的金融服务;避免农村金融资源外流,建立引导工业资金回流反哺农业的机制;合理优化金融对工业经济的投入,提高金融服务的效率;建立金融服务促进工农业协调发展的机制。
Based on the data from 1998 to 2011 in the western region, this paper uses panel VAR model to study the impact of financial services on the development of industry and agriculture. The results show that the financial services promote the coordinated development of industry and agriculture in the western region, and the financial services play a positive role in promoting the development of industry and agriculture. However, the promotion of agricultural development is obviously greater than the promotion of industry, that is, The marginal effect of agricultural development is greater than that of industry; with the passage of time, the contribution of financial services to industrial development has a very long-lasting effect, while the long-term contribution to agricultural development has a lasting effect. Relevant policy recommendations are: optimizing the credit structure and strengthening financial services for “agriculture, rural areas and farmers”; avoiding the outflow of rural financial resources; establishing a mechanism to guide the return of industrial funds to feed agriculture; properly optimizing the financial input to the industrial economy and improving financial services The efficiency of establishing financial services to promote the coordinated development of industry and agriculture mechanism.