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本文利用2005年7月至2010年12月间的月度数据,首先运用两变量协整检验法验证了我国房地产价格与信贷扩张之间存在长期稳定的比例关系。其次运用Granger因果检验法对房地产价格与信贷扩张之间的关系进行Grang-er检验,结果表明信贷扩张是房地产价格变化的短期原因,仅有1至4个月,而房地产价格变化是信贷扩张的中长期原因,有14至21个月。最后鉴于实证检验的结论提出了相关的政策建议。
Based on the monthly data from July 2005 to December 2010, this paper uses the two-variable cointegration test to verify the long-term and stable relationship between real estate prices and credit expansion in China. Second, using Granger causality test Grang-er test the relationship between real estate prices and credit expansion, the results show that credit expansion is the short-term reason for the real estate price changes, only 1 to 4 months, while the real estate price change is credit expansion Medium and long-term reasons, there are 14 to 21 months. Finally, in view of the conclusion of the empirical test, some relevant policy suggestions are put forward.