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在上一轮经济周期中,发达国家(主要是美国)是消费性需求的主要来源,而新兴市场则承担了“世界工厂”的角色。经济前景呈现新兴市场好于欧洲、欧洲好于美国的格局。而在新一轮周期中,全球再平衡呈现出三个层次:发达与新兴市场的再平衡:新兴市场投资价值有所降低;发达国家内部的再平衡:美国的投资价值强于欧洲;新兴市场内部再平衡:东盟可能分流部分流向中国的资本。
In the previous round of economic cycles, developed countries (mainly the United States) were the main source of consumer demand, while emerging markets assumed the role of “world factory.” The economic outlook shows that emerging markets are better than Europe and Europe is better than the United States. In the new cycle, the global rebalancing has three levels: the rebalancing of developed and emerging markets: the investment value of emerging markets has dropped; the rebalancing within developed countries has been that: the investment value of the United States is stronger than that of Europe; the emerging markets Internal rebalancing: ASEAN may divert some of its capital flowing to China.