一、问题的提出 灰色系统理论和方法,在分析、预测、决策、规划中应用最为广泛的为GM(1,1)模型,即将一组原始数列进行累加生成一阶单变量线性动态模型。灰色预测的特点是根据原始数列自身的发展趋势,采用累加生成处理,减轻数据的随机性,它与数理统计方法相比的优点是:(1) First, the problem proposed Gray system theory and method, the most widely used in the analysis, prediction, decision-making, planning for the GM (1,1) model, a set of original sequence is accumulated to generate first-order univariate linear dynamic model. The characteristic of gray prediction is that according to the development tendency of the original sequence, the accumulative generation processing is adopted to reduce the randomness of the data. Compared with the mathematical statistics, the advantages of gray prediction are as follows: (1)